New Views on Viral spread

(picture from Ablaze)

According to Duncan Watts and Peter Dodds(see report here) viral spreads work differently than we assumed(Gladwell in the Tipping Point and in books like the Influentials by Jon Berry and Ed Keller)

It is not the influentials but the ones who are likely to be influenced that need to be understood. The forest fire example explains this in a great way..

“Some forest fires, for example, are many times larger than average; yet
no-one would claim that the size of a forest fire can be in any way attributed to the
exceptional properties of the spark that ignited it, or the size of the tree that was the first
to burn. Major forest fires require a conspiracy of wind, temperature, low humidity, and
combustible fuel that extends over large tracts of land. Just as for large cascades in social
influence networks, when the right global combination of conditions exists, any spark
will do; and when it does not, none will suffice”

Thanks to HERD

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